So this idea has been kicking around in my head for a few days now.  The news and even popular culture has been filled for the last few months with messages about how the evils and excesses of consumerism have lead to the current market crash.  While to a degree this is true, there is a huge flaw with this argument.  Namely that to dig ourselves out of this mess, we have to spend money.  The true fault lies not with wanting stuff, and gadgets, and luxuries, but rather with the acceptance of debt as the way to pay for these things.  Spending money didn’t get us in this mess, spending money we didn’t have did.  Some naysayers have gone so far as to announce the beginning of the end of America as a superpower.  Saying this crisis is the event which marks the changing of the guard from western dominance of global politics and economics to China and the developing world.  I just don’t see it, not anytime soon at least.

I’ve heard several “market strategist” types who work in investment or oil firms refer to “oil time.”  When oil companies plan for the short term, they mean decades.  They consider the next 20 years short term because of how long it takes from finding a new source to actually delivering refined product to the market.  That is what China’s road to the top looks like in my opinion.  Undeniably they are a country on the rise.  With a labor force dwarfing that of America and the worlds largest market in their backyard, they have numerous advantages over the West in the long run.  But they are also still hampered by a Communist regime that will never completely open up and hundreds of millions of rural poor living in abject poverty.  If we think we have a health care problem in America, imagine tripling the number of people needing coverage and then having doctors only in New York and Los Angeles!

Anyway, my point in a round about way is this.  Save. . . so you can spend.  There are still dark days ahead, most projections don’t see us hitting bottom and starting to come back out until sometime during 2009 or beyond.  But the way out is to stay positive and spend money wisely.  Don’t blow it out on things you don’t need and can’t afford, but don’t stop spending all together.

p.s. parents – this post is speaking on issues of macro-economics, not personal finance.

“I’m not taking all my money out and putting it in a mattress just yet,” Nelson said. “It’s freaky times right now, but at the same time, things always find a way to work out — they have to.”

This time last night I was feeling good after Bush’s speech that the economy would get back on track.  Then came news that the deal being hammered out in the House and Senate had fallen appart.  Then came news that Washington Mutual was seized by the government and sold to JP Morgan Chase.  Ouch.  Now, certainly we  shouldn’t do anything out of panic.  We shouldn’t jump on the first proposal that comes along.  But we have to act.  Frankly I’m scared right  now.  I’m scared that there are too many politicians in Washington playing politics.  I’m scared that we are quickly approaching a point of no return where what is still largely a problem in just one sector of the economy spills over to the others.  No this is not a time to panic.  There will be a tomorrow.  Life will go on.  Recessions, depressions, booms and busts have all come and gone.  The economy is cyclical.  We can have hope and believe things will get better eventually.  But what happens in the next week or so will determine whether it is 2 years or 10 years.  Things will work out, “things always find a way to work out, they have to.”  They have to.

Seeing as how it’s 2:30am it would probably be a good idea to be in bed, but seeing as how it is so hot in our house still, that is pretty much a useless effort.  So instead I’m sitting here watching The Decemberists on Austin City Limits.  I recorded it about a month ago on Tivo and have it saved permanently.  I would love to see them in concert someday.  I guess there are at least three good things to come out of Portland, Powell’s Bookstore, The Decemberists, and Little People, Big World.  That’s about the most kind words you’ll ever here from a Washingtonian about the state of Oregon.  Until they at least ditch the 55mph speed limit, their staying on the sneeds list.

Though in the “retro” trend category, I’ve heard rumblings of a return to the nationwide 55mph speed limit to promote fuel savings.  While this is a pretty stupid concept (sorry, I tend to be a little more blunt at this time of night) it did kind of suck to pay $65 dollars today to fill my gas tank.  If I was smart, I’d invest in these guys right now.  I find it hard to imagine that congress, no matter who is in control, can avoid taking some kind of steps to counteract the insane skyrocketing gas prices.  The American (and by extension the world) economy is predicated on cheap fuel.  If this is no longer the reality, I’m less worried/interested in any coming recession as I am in the restructuring of society that will take place as a result of transportation no longer being cheap.  Anyone know at what point train travel becomes more practical than flight?  I remember when I purchased my first HP laptop I drove from Yakima to my house and back again just to pick it up.  I don’t even drive over the hill to San Jose anymore now.

(update: I’m now watching last weeks Arcade Fire performance on Austin City Limits. . . Tivo is great)

Anyway, I took the afternoon off of work today and went down to Vintage for a special condensed new members class.  It was an exciting opportunity to go through the fundamentals of what Vintage stands for as a church and to be able to put pen to paper and actually commit to standing by those values.  We still haven’t had the official commissioning yet but we all signed covenants today dedicating ourselves to the mission of the church.  Between this and the photo show opening tomorrow it’s a pretty exciting time at Vintage for me right now!

Well, it’s finally started to cool down now so I think I’ll take a whack at getting some rest before tomorrow.  This is going to be a busy week!

When I was going into Quiznos today for lunch the lady who went in right before me held the door open after she stepped inside.  This seemingly inconsequential nicety represents a much more profound truth that is the reason I’m not worried about the future of the country.  There is a lot of fear right now about a coming recession that is going to hit all of us very hard.  Personally, I don’t think it is going to be as bad as people say, but I’m not exactly a paragon of financial knowledge so don’t take my word for it.  That said, the sky isn’t falling.  If a recession really does hit and the economy slows, there will be a few hard years, maybe some tight budgets, but we will pull through and be alright because we are a country of people who inherently want to be nice to each other.  Sure there are greedy and less altruistic people who are only interested in others based on what they have to gain, but by and large, people want to help each other out.  We know that at the end of the day, come recession or economic boom, we are our best assets.  I think as Christians this is one of those great times where we can lead the way as the example of how to treat each other with love and respect, to show the light of Christ to those around us who might take a big hit.  This is also the reason that I’m increasingly drawn to support Obama for President.  As was referenced by Ted Kennedy today (who thought I would see the day where I agreed with that guy!), Obama is offering people a platform of change and hope.  He is hearkening back to Presidents like Reagan and JFK who lead the country through dark times with messages of hope.  Men who reminded us of why we, America, are the greatest country in the world.  I don’t mean that in an arrogant ethnocentric way, but rather in the sense we can be that City on a Hill, that Camelot, serving as a beacon to a world full of war and famine.  He is the only candidate that I see as someone who gives us a legitimate chance at a New Politics, a political landscape where we no longer are bickering over party lines but having substantial discussions of foreign and economic policy.  Maybe we can finally do something about Stage 2 subsidies, maybe we can finally find a real, lasting solution to illegal immigration.  Maybe we get policies that are more than just vote grabs.  We have had nearly 10 years of fighting over which party is the most corrupt and sleazy and with Obama we get someone who has no reason not to throw open the gates and run a transparent government that values truth and openness over deceit and bureaucracy.  This is the future I want to live in, this is the country I think we can be.  Will you join me?